Ross S. Guest
Griffith University
Australia
Ian M. McDonald
The University of Melbourne
Australia
Abstract
This paper applies a two good, multi-region Ramsey-Solow model to determine
the impact of future demographic change on international living standards and
the optimal rate of national saving. Notable features of the model include:
an outward looking model of utility, a premium in the interest rate for capital
importing regions, an exchange rate expressed as the relative price of traded
and non-traded goods, and a vintage model of production. The world economy is
divided into nine regions consisting of the eight regions in the United Nations
long run demographic projections (1998 Revision) plus Japan as a separate region.
The model is simulated for the low, medium and high fertility scenarios as projected
for all regions by the United Nations. The model suggests that there will be
a flow of international capital from the ageing regions to the younger regions;
and that the world interest rate will fall. The lower world interest rate will
cause a loss in living standards for ageing regions, the lenders, and a gain
for the younger regions, borrowers. Lower fertility leads to greater downward
movement in the world interest rate, thereby increasing the loss to ageing regions
and the gain to younger regions of demographic change. The impact on living
standards of alternative fertility rates is dominated by the dependency effect,
with the capital widening and capital intensity effects playing minor roles.
The real exchange rate response to demographic change turns out to be small
in this model, particularly for the developing regions.