Paper Link Han, H., Julien, B., Petursdottir, A., & Wang, L. : Equilibrium using credit or money with indivisible goods, Journal of Economic Theory, November 2016.
Paper Link Fuleky, P., and Ventura, L.: Mean Lag in General Error Correction Models, Economics Letters, June 2016
Paper Link Kirwan, B. E., & Roberts, M. J. : Who Really Benefits from Agricultural Subsidies? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, June 2016.
Date: Friday, January 13, 2017 at 3 pm.
Room: Saunders 515
Title: The Effects of Pre-Trial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges
Speaker: Will Dobbie
Institution: Princeton University
Over 20 percent of prison and jail inmates in the United States are currently awaiting trial, but little is known about the impact of pre-trial detention on defendants. This paper uses the detention tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to estimate the causal effects of pre-trial detention on subsequent defendant outcomes. Using data from administrative court and tax records, we find that pre-trial detention significantly increases the probability of conviction, primarily through an increase in guilty pleas. Pre-trial detention has no net effect on future crime, but decreases formal sector employment and the receipt of employment- and tax- related government benefits. These results are consistent with (i) pre-trial detention weakening defendants’ bargaining positions during plea negotiations, and (ii) a criminal conviction lowering defendants’ prospects in the formal labor market.